PERIPHERAL BY DESIGN?

DEPENDENCY, COMPRADOR STATECRAFT, AND NIGERIA’S DEVELOPMENTAL REVERSAL UNDER THE BUHARI ADMINISTRATION (2015–2023)

Abstract

This study examines Nigeria’s comprehensive decline under President Muhammadu Buhari (2015–2023) through an integrated theoretical framework synthesizing dependency theory and the comprador state concept. The central research question asks: to what extent can the Buhariera reversal across economic, educational, and security domains be understood as a structurally functional outcome of Nigeria’s peripheral position in the global capitalist system, rather than merely governance failure? The analysis employs a qualitative explanatory case study design, contrasting the Jonathan-era trajectory (2011–2015), when Nigeria achieved Africa’s largest
economy status with an average growth rate of 7%, with the Buhari-era reversal documented in World Bank, IMF, and national statistics. Findings reveal that by 2023, per capita income had regressed to 1980s levels, education budgets fell below 6% of federal expenditure with 663 days of university strikes, and insecurity expanded from north-eastern containment to nationwide crisis.
According to Bergstresser (2021), civilian fatalities exceeded 13,000 annually during this period. The study demonstrates that Western diplomatic and financial support correlated inversely with developmental outcomes: the growth-oriented Jonathan administration faced critical distancing, while the declining Buhari regime received sustained backing. This paradox, the study argues, can
be understood through comprador theory: a weakened, indebted Nigeria served external interests by remaining a compliant peripheral state rather than emerging as a sovereign competitor. The article concludes by briefly noting, as an illustrative coda, that the Tinubu administration’s pursuit of strategic autonomy—BRICS partnership, currency diversification, and Chinese mineral
processing agreements—has provoked Western hostility, a pattern that tentatively confirms the study’s core theoretical expectation that the geopolitical imperative for external actors remains containment rather than development.