HUMAN FERTILITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA AND GHANA (1980 – 2023): AN ARDL COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

Abstract

This study examined the relationship between human fertility and economic growth
in Nigeria and Ghana, utilising annual time series data from 1980 to 2023. The study employed the
ARDL estimation technique and found that the impact of the total fertility rate (measured by number
of children per woman) on economic growth (measured by real gross domestic product growth rate)
differs between the two countries. In Nigeria, the total fertility rate has a negative but not
statistically significant effect on economic growth in the short run (-26.6782; P-value 0.1045), but
a positive and statistically significant impact in the long run (17.9225; P-value 0.0380). In contrast,
Ghana experiences a statistically significant negative effect on economic growth from its total
fertility rate in both the short (-8.4670; P-value 0.0005) and long run periods (-10.5597; P-value
0.0028). The study recommends that policymakers in Nigeria focus on long-term economic growth
by improving the quality of education and access, implementing family planning programs, and
promoting vocational training. In Ghana, policymakers should implement family planning
programs, integrate family planning education into school curricula, empower women, and allocate
resources for family planning programs and human capital development.