ECONOMIC AND SECURITY DRIVERS OF EMIGRATION FROM NIGERIA, 2005–2018

A REGRESSION AND SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Abstract

This study analyzes how economic (unemployment, real GDP) and security indicators (armed robbery and missing persons) shaped emigration from Nigeria between 2005 and 2018. Using secondary data from the NBS, CBN, and World Bank, the study applies SPSS regression analysis, ArcGIS spatial mapping, and a 14-year dataset (N = 14) to assess trends and relationships. The joint regression model explains 47.2% of the variance in emigration, with unemployment emerging as the only significant predictor (p = 0.022). A projection to 2030 suggests a potential rise in emigration, though this estimate depends on model assumptions and carries forecast uncertainty, underscoring the need for cautious policy responses integrating  employment creation and security reforms.