ANALYSING THE IMPACT OF SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS INFLUENCING VOTER TURNOUT IN NIGERIA’S FOURTH REPUBLIC (2015-2023)

Abstract

Despite various political situations in Nigerian democracy marked by various
political contexts and a wide range of strategies to contest the results, voter turnout in Nigerian
presidential elections has declined. This study aimed to investigate the influence of socio-
economic factors on voter turnout in Nigeria’s 2015, 2019, and 2023 presidential elections.
Using secondary data, the study employed descriptive statistics (maximum, minimum, mean,
and standard deviation) and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis with the statistical
package for the social sciences (SPSS) environment to describe and evaluate the impact of
these factors on voter turnout, respectively. ESRI ArcGIS 10.8 was also used to examine the
geographical distribution of voter turnout. The findings revealed a significant decrease in the
average voter turnout of 46.72% in 2015, 35.63% in 2019, and 27.06% in the 2023 presidential
elections. Notably, states with higher voter turnout rates were often aligned with the ruling
party's geopolitical zones, which shifted over the three election cycles. Findings indicate that
socio-economic factors did not significantly affect voter turnout in the 2015 and 2023
presidential elections. Additionally, only the percentage of educated women negatively
influenced voter turnout in the 2019 presidential election. Based on these findings, the paper
recommends that the federal, state and local governments should further strengthen the
implementation of measures to reduce poverty and improve socio-economic conditions so that
citizens can participate more actively in elections.