Temporal and Spatial Epidemiology of Monkey Pox (Mpox)

A Case Study of Plateau State, Nigeria in 2022

Abstract

The re-emergence of monkey pox virus has become a global public health concern, prompting the World Health Organization to declare it a public health emergency. This study investigated the cumulative incidence of monkey pox in Plateau State, Nigeria, examining transmission routes and enabling factors, thereby providing policy makers and public health professionals the necessary epidemiological data to prevent future incidence cases as well as mitigate the current prevalence of monkey pox virus. Surveillance data were obtained from the Plateau State Ministry of Health across all 17 Local Government Areas (LGAs) for the period January to December 2022. Using the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) reporting system for immediate case notification, all monkey pox cases (both suspected and confirmed) were captured from reporting health facilities. Data collected included epidemiological case numbers, patient demographics (age and sex), reporting health facility details, geographic location (ward and LGA), dates of symptom onset and reporting, case classification status, clinical outcomes, and presenting symptoms. Descriptive statistics including frequencies and proportions were calculated, with results presented through tables, charts, and maps using the R version 4.5.2 software. Between January and December 2022, 118 suspected mpox cases were reported, of which 16 (13.6%) tested positive. The confirmed cases were distributed across six LGAs: Jos North (62.50%), Jos South (12.50%), Bassa (6.25%), Shendam (6.25%), Mangu (6.25%), and Pankshin (6.25%). The overall incidence rate was 2.6 per 100,000 population with a case fatality rate of 0%. The male-to-female ratio was 1.1:1, with the 0-19 years age group most affected. September recorded the highest number of cases. Monkey pox remains a public health concern in Plateau State. Enhanced surveillance systems and community engagement are crucial for early detection and containment. Access to vaccines and treatments may reduce morbidity and mortality in affected areas, particularly in Plateau State.